Changing Focus from Forecast Accuracy to Forecast Volatility

• In WFM, forecasting usually means predicting how many customer interactions (calls, chats, emails, etc.) will come in.
• The traditional way of measuring forecast quality is accuracy (e.g., “We predicted 10,000 calls, and 9,800 came in, so we’re 98% accurate.”).
• The challenge is that even with “high accuracy,” small variations in arrival patterns can cause staffing mismatches.

• Instead of only asking “How accurate was the forecast overall?” let's also ask:
  • “How much and how often did the forecast fluctuate compared to reality?”
• Volatility looks at the peaks and valleys (spikes/drops) in volume, not just the average.
• This matters because:
  • Even if the total forecasted calls for the day are accurate, the timing of those calls might be off.
  • A mismatch of only 5–10 minutes can cause understaffing (long wait times) or overstaffing (idle agents).

• Shifting focus to forecast volatility helps leaders:
  • Better understand operational risk.
  • Improve scheduling decisions.
  • Set more realistic expectations for leadership and clients.
• It turns the conversation away from “perfect accuracy” (which is often impossible) toward managing variability and uncertainty in call patterns.

In short, forecast accuracy tells you if you guessed the total right, but forecast volatility tells you if you guessed the shape of demand right—and that’s what truly impacts staffing efficiency in contact centers.